Claude Prompt — 2026-06-05

Paste this into the Claude app, or use Run analysis to execute it here. Instructions are cached; the digest is the daily data.

System instructions (cached)

You are an expert MLB prop-bet analyst. Each day I give you a structured digest of the full slate and you produce **overs-only** prop recommendations for three markets: **Home Runs (HR), Total Bases (TB 1.5+), and Hits+Runs+RBIs (H+R+RBI 1.5+)**. This is for personal research — you produce information and reasoning, never a wager.

# Absolute rules
1. **Use ONLY the data in the digest.** Never invent, recall, or estimate a stat that isn't present. Missing-data markers are typed: `—`/`NF` = UNKNOWN (not fetched / feed pending — don't guess it; a pick can still be made on other present factors); `ZS` = zero-sample (queried, genuinely no qualifying events — a real absence, not noise to fill); `N/A` = doesn't apply. A `NO_MLB_DATA` flag means the hitter has no MLB track record (just called up) — set those aside, don't fabricate.
2. **Exclude games already started** (the digest separates them) and any game flagged `both_pitchers_strong`.
3. When a key input for a pick is "—", say so explicitly in the rationale and lower your confidence. Honesty about missing data is the point.
4. Prefer **overs on hitters with a platoon advantage, strong recent contact quality (L7 xwOBA/barrel%/hard-hit%), and a favorable park/weather**, facing a vulnerable or regression-prone starter, in a higher-implied-total environment.

# How to read the data
- **Implied team totals + both-under-4**: higher implied total = more scoring environment. Skip/avoid hitters in games where both teams are under ~4 implied runs. (If implied/totals show "—", odds aren't integrated — say so and don't apply this filter.)
- **Prop lines** (HR / TB / H+R+RBI columns): when a price is shown it is a **verified** market line — use it for value. A "—" prop means the market wasn't available (paid/late-posting), NOT that the bet is bad.
- **Platoon + pitcher vs-hand**: ADVANTAGE = batter's handedness edge (switch hitters always). Now corroborated by the **pitcher's vsLHB/vsRHB wOBA & xwOBA allowed** — a high allowed-wOBA to the batter's side is a *true* platoon edge, not just an inferred one. Watch for reverse-split arms.
- **L7 quality (BBE·Δ·Rel)**: last-7-day contact. Each L7 cell shows **BBE** (sample), **Δ** = wOBA−xwOBA (luck: + = overperforming/lucky, − = unlucky), and a **reliability tier** (LOW/MED/HIGH). `HOT_AND_REAL` = hot + xwOBA backs it. `HOT_BUT_LUCKY` = hot results, Δ large positive → fade. `COLD_BUT_UNLUCKY` = weak results, strong contact → buy-low. **`INSUFFICIENT_BBE`** = sample too small (< ~15 BBE) to judge hot/cold — treat the L7 verdict as UNKNOWN, lean on season + matchup instead. Weight HIGH-reliability lines over LOW.
- **Pitcher "against" profile**: `xwOBA-against`, `Brl%-allowed`, `HH%-allowed`, `FB%` — high barrel%/HH%-allowed + high FB% = HR/TB-prone (best signal for HR picks). `REGRESSION_CANDIDATE` (xERA ≫ ERA) = due to get worse. `SMALL_SAMPLE_PITCHER` = rate stats (FIP/HR9) unreliable, hedge. `LIKELY_OPENER` = the lineup mostly faces the **bullpen**, so weight the opposing pen, not the starter, and discount starter-based reads.
- **Park HR factor (PkHR)**: >100 favors HRs for that batter's hand; <100 suppresses.
- **Weather (HRidx)**: `HRidx` > 1.05 = BOOST (warm + wind out → HR/TB), < 0.95 = suppress; `⚠CAUTION` = genuinely offense-killing (cold/rain/wind-in). Roof closed / dome = neutral.
- **BvP**: small samples (marked SM) are noise — mention but don't lean on them.
- **Bullpen**: weak pen (high ERA/FIP) + high `IP-last-3d` (fatigued) extends scoring late — relevant for H+R+RBI and opener games.
- **Low lineup spot** (order ≥ 7) means fewer plate appearances — discount TB/H+R+RBI overs.

# Output format
1. A one-line slate read (how many games, scoring environment, notable weather).
2. **Top picks**, grouped by market (HR / TB 1.5+ / H+R+RBI 1.5+). For each pick give: `PLAYER (TEAM) — market — confidence Low/Med/High` then a 1–2 sentence rationale citing the specific digest factors (platoon, L7 quality, pitcher, park/weather). If prop odds are shown, reference them; if "—", note the line is unverified.
3. A short **"Fades / avoid"** list (e.g. HOT_BUT_LUCKY bats, both-under-4 games).
4. A **"Data gaps that limited this analysis"** list, pulled from the digest's missing/unverified section and any "—" you relied on.

Rank within each market by your confidence. Be decisive but calibrated — High confidence requires multiple corroborating, *present* (non-"—") factors.

Slate digest (today's data)

# MLB Slate — 2026-06-05 (ET)
_15 games · generated 2026-06-04T11:14:02.072Z_
_Missing-data markers: `—` unknown · `NF` not-fetched (feed/Statcast pending) · `ZS` zero-sample (queried, no qualifying events) · `N/A` not-applicable. Treat `NF` as "go fill it", `ZS`/`N/A` as genuinely absent._

> **Operative-rules status**
> - Implied-total / both-under-4 filters **INACTIVE** (no `ODDS_API_KEY`).

## Upcoming (15)
### SF @ CHC — Wrigley Field (open) — 2:20 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: CHC — / SF — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 83.5°F · wind 15.7mph out_to_cf · precip 19% · HRidx 1.2 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 103 · XBH/TB 104 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok · day_after_night_game:CHC

**Probables**
- CHC — —
- SF — —

**Bullpens:** CHC pen 3.42 ERA / 4.25 FIP / IP-last-3d 13.3 · SF pen 4.09 ERA / 4.26 FIP / IP-last-3d 9

### CWS @ PHI — Citizens Bank Park (open) — 6:40 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: PHI — / CWS — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 93°F · wind 10.5mph cross · precip 0% · HRidx 1.08 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 103 · XBH/TB 102 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- PHI — —
- CWS — Anthony Kay (L) [probable]: 3.77 ERA / 5.67 xERA / 5.23 FIP / 1.4 WHIP / K9 6.6 / BB% 9.3 / HR9 1.3 / GB% 49.2
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 3 / road 4.81 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-19: 5.1ip 1er 1h 0hr 5k 3bb | 2026-05-25: 6.0ip 1er 5h 1hr 5k 1bb | 2026-05-30: 5.0ip 1er 6h 1hr 3k 1bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE

**Bullpens:** PHI pen 3.88 ERA / 3.4 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.7 · CWS pen 4.32 ERA / 4.39 FIP / IP-last-3d 11.3

### SEA @ DET — Comerica Park (open) — 6:40 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: DET — / SEA — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 87.2°F · wind 14.9mph out_to_rf · precip 6% · HRidx 1.21 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 97 · XBH/TB 101 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- DET — Framber Valdez (L) [probable]: 4.39 ERA / 4.38 xERA / 4.18 FIP / 1.32 WHIP / K9 7.2 / BB% 8.5 / HR9 0.9 / GB% 53.1
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 5.14 / road 4.05 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-18: 5.0ip 4er 5h 0hr 3k 4bb | 2026-05-24: 6.0ip 1er 2h 1hr 5k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 6.2ip 4er 6h 1hr 4k 2bb
    · flags: —
- SEA — Bryan Woo (R) [probable]: 3.44 ERA / 2.91 xERA / 2.96 FIP / 0.96 WHIP / K9 8.7 / BB% 5 / HR9 0.8 / GB% 36.2
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 2.37 / road 4.68 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-18: 6.0ip 0er 3h 0hr 8k 2bb | 2026-05-24: 4.2ip 4er 6h 0hr 4k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 7.0ip 0er 2h 0hr 9k 0bb
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** DET pen 4.36 ERA / 4.25 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.7 · SEA pen 3.01 ERA / 3.44 FIP / IP-last-3d 12.7

### BOS @ NYY — Yankee Stadium (open) — 7:05 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: NYY — / BOS — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 90.1°F · wind 6.4mph out_to_cf · precip 0% · HRidx 1.14 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 105 · XBH/TB 103 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- NYY — —
- BOS — —

**Bullpens:** NYY pen 3.67 ERA / 3.77 FIP / IP-last-3d 11.3 · BOS pen 3.08 ERA / 3.73 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.7

### BAL @ TOR — Rogers Centre (retractable) — 7:07 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: TOR — / BAL — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 78°F · wind 13.8mph out_to_rf · precip 2% · HRidx 1.16 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 103 · XBH/TB 102 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- TOR — —
- BAL — —

**Bullpens:** TOR pen 3.93 ERA / 3.7 FIP / IP-last-3d 10 · BAL pen 4.76 ERA / 3.89 FIP / IP-last-3d 9

### TB @ MIA — loanDepot park (retractable) — 7:10 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: MIA — / TB — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 77°F · wind 4.5mph in_from_rf · precip 12% · HRidx 0.98 (neutral)
Park factors: Run 98 · XBH/TB 99 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- MIA — Tyler Phillips (R) [probable]: 1.63 ERA / 3.58 xERA / 3.28 FIP / 1.27 WHIP / K9 7.7 / BB% 11.5 / HR9 0.2 / GB% 56.1
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 0 / road 4.02 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-24: 3.2ip 0er 2h 0hr 4k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 5.0ip 3er 6h 0hr 2k 1bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE
- TB — Drew Rasmussen (R) [probable]: 3.36 ERA / 3.31 xERA / 3.66 FIP / 1.02 WHIP / K9 8.4 / BB% 5.1 / HR9 1.2 / GB% 57.5
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 3.62 / road 3.13 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-17: 5.1ip 2er 7h 0hr 2k 2bb | 2026-05-24: 7.0ip 0er 5h 0hr 6k 1bb | 2026-05-30: 4.0ip 5er 4h 1hr 4k 2bb
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** MIA pen 3.6 ERA / 3.7 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.3 · TB pen 4.65 ERA / 4.82 FIP / IP-last-3d 17.3

### PIT @ ATL — Truist Park (open) — 7:15 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: ATL — / PIT — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 86°F · wind 7.4mph cross · precip 0% · HRidx 1.06 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 102 · XBH/TB 101 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- ATL — —
- PIT — —

**Bullpens:** ATL pen 2.99 ERA / 3.51 FIP / IP-last-3d 8.3 · PIT pen 4.32 ERA / 4.19 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.3

### ATH @ HOU — Daikin Park (retractable) — 8:10 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: HOU — / ATH — · both-under-4: —
Weather: Retractable roof likely CLOSED (77.2°F / 51% precip) — neutral
Park factors: Run 103 · XBH/TB 102 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- HOU — —
- ATH — Jack Perkins (R) [probable]: 5.46 ERA / 3.14 xERA / 2.6 FIP / 1.21 WHIP / K9 10.6 / BB% 5.6 / HR9 0.3 / GB% 42.3
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 6.06 / road 4.63 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): —
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** HOU pen 5.3 ERA / 5.16 FIP / IP-last-3d 12 · ATH pen 4.33 ERA / 4.1 FIP / IP-last-3d 15.3

### CIN @ STL — Busch Stadium (open) — 8:15 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: STL — / CIN — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 88.8°F · wind 11mph out_to_cf · precip 15% · HRidx 1.18 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 99 · XBH/TB 99 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- STL — Kyle Leahy (R) [probable]: 4.25 ERA / 6.24 xERA / 4.74 FIP / 1.56 WHIP / K9 7.5 / BB% 8.8 / HR9 1.3 / GB% 55.8
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 3.28 / road 5.04 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-16: 6.0ip 1er 5h 0hr 2k 3bb | 2026-05-23: 5.0ip 5er 7h 2hr 8k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 4.1ip 1er 6h 0hr 4k 0bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE
- CIN — Brady Singer (R) [probable]: 6.18 ERA / 6.48 xERA / 6.88 FIP / 1.69 WHIP / K9 6.4 / BB% 6.7 / HR9 2.8 / GB% 45.1
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 4.5 / road 7.67 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-12: 3.2ip 3er 6h 3hr 2k 1bb | 2026-05-17: 4.0ip 5er 7h 3hr 6k 1bb | 2026-05-30: 5.0ip 3er 4h 2hr 2k 4bb
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** STL pen 4.28 ERA / 4.2 FIP / IP-last-3d 9.7 · CIN pen 4.96 ERA / 5.23 FIP / IP-last-3d 15

### KC @ MIN — Target Field (open) — 8:15 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: MIN — / KC — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 83.1°F · wind 8.1mph cross · precip 40% · HRidx 1.04 (neutral)
Park factors: Run 100 · XBH/TB 100 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- MIN — Zebby Matthews (R) [probable]: 4.63 ERA / 3 xERA / 4.6 FIP / 1.03 WHIP / K9 9.3 / BB% 4.2 / HR9 1.9 / GB% 37.8
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 1.38 / road 8.71 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-19: 6.0ip 2er 5h 1hr 6k 0bb | 2026-05-25: 6.0ip 3er 5h 2hr 6k 1bb | 2026-05-31: 4.1ip 7er 6h 2hr 7k 2bb
    · flags: —
- KC — Michael Wacha (R) [probable]: 3.23 ERA / 3.95 xERA / 3.91 FIP / 1.12 WHIP / K9 7.8 / BB% 8.6 / HR9 1 / GB% 41.3
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 2.45 / road 4.11 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-20: 6.0ip 1er 6h 0hr 8k 2bb | 2026-05-25: 7.0ip 2er 5h 1hr 5k 2bb | 2026-05-31: 5.0ip 6er 8h 0hr 5k 4bb
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** MIN pen 4.75 ERA / 4.34 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.3 · KC pen 5.06 ERA / 4.96 FIP / IP-last-3d 8.3

### CLE @ TEX — Globe Life Field (retractable) — 8:15 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: TEX — / CLE — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 76.3°F · wind 7.8mph out_to_lf · precip 30% · HRidx 1.1 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 103 · XBH/TB 104 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- TEX — Kumar Rocker (R) [probable]: 3.54 ERA / 4.62 xERA / 4.14 FIP / 1.32 WHIP / K9 7.1 / BB% 10.4 / HR9 0.8 / GB% 53.3
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 2.95 / road 4.66 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-13: 5.0ip 0er 3h 0hr 3k 4bb | 2026-05-25: 5.0ip 4er 4h 1hr 5k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 6.0ip 0er 3h 0hr 2k 3bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE
- CLE — Parker Messick (L) [probable]: 2.21 ERA / 3.23 xERA / 3.04 FIP / 1.07 WHIP / K9 9.6 / BB% 7.7 / HR9 0.8 / GB% 46.3
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 2.41 / road 1.91 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-19: 5.0ip 2er 4h 1hr 6k 3bb | 2026-05-24: 5.2ip 0er 5h 0hr 6k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 5.0ip 1er 5h 0hr 4k 2bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE

**Bullpens:** TEX pen 3.33 ERA / 4.09 FIP / IP-last-3d 10.3 · CLE pen 3.71 ERA / 3.58 FIP / IP-last-3d 11.7

### MIL @ COL — Coors Field (open) — 8:40 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: COL — / MIL — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 89.8°F · wind 8.1mph out_to_lf · precip 4% · HRidx 1.15 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 118 · XBH/TB 122 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- COL — Ryan Feltner (R) [probable]: 4.85 ERA / 6.32 xERA / 5.06 FIP / 1.31 WHIP / K9 6.6 / BB% 7.4 / HR9 1.7 / GB% 52.7
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 3.79 / road 7.71 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-04-18: 5.2ip 2er 5h 2hr 5k 1bb | 2026-04-23: 2.0ip 2er 2h 0hr 3k 1bb | 2026-05-30: 6.0ip 0er 4h 0hr 2k 0bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE
- MIL — Brandon Sproat (R) [probable]: 6.24 ERA / 5.11 xERA / 5.59 FIP / 1.53 WHIP / K9 9.6 / BB% 12.4 / HR9 1.8 / GB% 48.2
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 6.33 / road 6.14 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-18: 4.2ip 3er 3h 1hr 5k 3bb | 2026-05-24: 4.0ip 3er 4h 0hr 7k 4bb | 2026-05-30: 4.1ip 5er 6h 1hr 4k 0bb
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** COL pen 4.92 ERA / 4.15 FIP / IP-last-3d 12 · MIL pen 3.16 ERA / 3.22 FIP / IP-last-3d 12.3

### WSH @ AZ — Chase Field (retractable) — 9:40 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: AZ — / WSH — · both-under-4: —
Weather: Retractable roof likely CLOSED (103.1°F / 0% precip) — neutral
Park factors: Run 102 · XBH/TB 101 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- AZ — Merrill Kelly (R) [probable]: 5.06 ERA / 7.26 xERA / 5.59 FIP / 1.46 WHIP / K9 5.6 / BB% 9.4 / HR9 1.7 / GB% 42.1
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 6.23 / road 4.5 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-20: 6.0ip 3er 8h 1hr 4k 0bb | 2026-05-25: 7.0ip 2er 4h 0hr 4k 2bb | 2026-05-31: 5.1ip 2er 8h 2hr 2k 2bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE
- WSH — Foster Griffin (L) [probable]: 3.76 ERA / 4.41 xERA / 4.89 FIP / 1.15 WHIP / K9 8.7 / BB% 7.5 / HR9 1.8 / GB% 48.5
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 4 / road 3.6 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-19: 5.0ip 5er 8h 2hr 5k 0bb | 2026-05-24: 6.0ip 0er 3h 0hr 6k 1bb | 2026-05-30: 5.0ip 3er 5h 3hr 5k 2bb
    · flags: —

**Bullpens:** AZ pen 3.9 ERA / 3.91 FIP / IP-last-3d 10 · WSH pen 4.79 ERA / 4.91 FIP / IP-last-3d 15.3

### NYM @ SD — Petco Park (open) — 9:40 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: SD — / NYM — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 65.3°F · wind 6.8mph out_to_rf · precip 0% · HRidx 1.04 (neutral)
Park factors: Run 98 · XBH/TB 99 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- SD — Michael King (R) [probable]: 3.18 ERA / 3.98 xERA / 3.84 FIP / 1.13 WHIP / K9 8.6 / BB% 10.6 / HR9 0.8 / GB% 55.2
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 2.67 / road 3.67 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-18: 7.0ip 0er 4h 0hr 9k 2bb | 2026-05-24: 3.2ip 4er 5h 1hr 4k 4bb | 2026-05-30: 6.0ip 5er 5h 1hr 2k 1bb
    · flags: —
- NYM — Christian Scott (R) [probable]: 2.97 ERA / 4.23 xERA / 3.1 FIP / 1.38 WHIP / K9 11.3 / BB% 11.9 / HR9 0.3 / GB% 36
    · vsLHB wOBA NF/xw NF · vsRHB wOBA NF/xw NF · home ERA 3.27 / road 2.79 · IP —
    · against-profile (xwOBA/Brl%/HH%/FB% allowed): NOT_FETCHED — run Fill Statcast
    · last 3 (pre-slate): 2026-05-18: 4.0ip 3er 4h 0hr 5k 3bb | 2026-05-24: 5.2ip 0er 4h 0hr 5k 2bb | 2026-05-30: 5.0ip 1er 5h 0hr 8k 2bb
    · flags: REGRESSION_CANDIDATE

**Bullpens:** SD pen 3.12 ERA / 3.29 FIP / IP-last-3d 8 · NYM pen 3.23 ERA / 3.52 FIP / IP-last-3d 17.7

### LAA @ LAD — Dodger Stadium (open) — 10:10 PM ET
Status: scheduled · O/U — · Implied: LAD — / LAA — · both-under-4: —
Weather: 69.4°F · wind 7.4mph out_to_rf · precip 0% · HRidx 1.06 (BOOST)
Park factors: Run 102 · XBH/TB 102 (per-hand HR in the lineup PkHR column)
Flags: opp_pitcher_team_check=ok

**Probables**
- LAD — —
- LAA — —

**Bullpens:** LAD pen 3.21 ERA / 3.26 FIP / IP-last-3d 9 · LAA pen 5.15 ERA / 4.97 FIP / IP-last-3d 12.7

## Missing / unverified data
- Odds not integrated (no ODDS_API_KEY): O/U, implied totals, both-under-4 inactive.
- Pitcher vs-LHB/RHB wOBA unavailable for 18/18 starters (not in free data).
- Bullpen wOBA-by-hand unavailable for 30/30 bullpens (not in free data).
- SF@CHC home probable: none announced
- SF@CHC away probable: none announced
- CWS@PHI home probable: none announced
- BOS@NYY home probable: none announced
- BOS@NYY away probable: none announced
- BAL@TOR home probable: none announced
- BAL@TOR away probable: none announced
- PIT@ATL home probable: none announced
- PIT@ATL away probable: none announced
- ATH@HOU home probable: none announced
- LAA@LAD home probable: none announced
- LAA@LAD away probable: none announced
- CHC lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- SF lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- DET lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- SEA lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- PHI lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- CWS lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- NYY lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- BOS lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- TOR lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- BAL lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- MIA lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- TB lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- ATL lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- PIT lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- HOU lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- ATH lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- STL lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- CIN lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- TEX lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- CLE lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- MIN lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- KC lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- COL lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- MIL lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- AZ lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- WSH lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- SD lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- NYM lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- LAD lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- LAA lineup: not yet posted (projected unavailable)
- both_pitchers_strong depends on xERA (Statcast) — cannot fire until xERA is populated
- Odds not fetched: no ODDS_API_KEY.